ROCKET LAUNCHERS BRACE FOR BUSINESS SLUMP
Satellite launcher market has “double, if not triple, overcapacity” with addition of Atlas 5 and Delta 4, Lockheed Martin Vp John Karas said. Meanwhile, Japan prepared to make its first foray into crowded market with Sept. 10 test launch of H-2A, National Space Development Agency spokesman said. Japan, which used launch to place Data Relay satellite and test module into orbit, has “established rocket technology of the world’s top class,” Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said. Japan is hoping to enter market dominated by U.S. and Europe with new-generation booster, spokesman said. Fourth mission of H-2A is planned later this year. Data Relay satellite was designed to help communication between ground stations and other satellites. It’s first time Japanese booster has launched geostationary satellite in 7-1/2 years and cost it $86 million.
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New booster models are expected to flood market even as industry remains weak for commercial launches, analysts and satellite officials said. Atlas 5 was launched Aug. 21 from Cape Canaveral carrying Eutelsat Hot Bird 6 satellite. Atlas 5 replaces Titan rockets built by Lockheed Martin. Atlas rockets are launched and sold commercially by International Launch Services (ILS), joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Russian companies Khrunichev and RSC Energia. Latter 2 also market Russian Proton rockets that launch from Baikonur.
“Market crunch” is being felt by Arianespace, which receives 90% of its business from commercial market, spokeswoman said. “We have overcapacity of launchers” and “fewer satellites to launch. Any new entrant in the market is competition and it forces down prices. Only 1 to 3 satellites have been ordered this year, which will impact business 2 or 3 years from now. It’s bad now and its going to get worse.”
Arianespace is down to one launch vehicle, Ariane 5, while most of others have 2 -- ILS has Atlas 5 and Proton, and Boeing has Delta 4 and Sea Launch. Chinese Long March, currently restricted, could become available to satellite operators in U.S. if export controls were lifted. Spokeswoman said situation was “especially hard” for Arianespace because “we are much more dependent on the commercial market” whereas ILS also sells to U.S. and Russian military space markets. Most analysts and industry experts have expressed concerned that market won’t be able to support 5 launch companies.
Lockheed Martin and Boeing have filled 70% of their launches with govt. orders. Arianespace has been forced to seek out new private and public markets such as NATO, official said: “The U.S. government has a number of continuing major military projects on which one rocket company can survive, but not 2.” ILS has had 60 successful missions with Atlas, but Atlas 5 has signed just 9 military contracts starting in 2004, compared with 19 deals signed for rival Boeing’s Delta 4. Delta 4 also will carry Eutelsat satellite on its first launch scheduled next month and will receive unspecified discount on launch fees to test reliability of rocket, spokesman said.