Nextel’s broadband future relies on it getting 1.9 GHz spectrum b...

likely to survive an almost inevitable legal appeal. However, Legg Mason is taking a less negative view. “[Nextel’s] successful narrowband past is unlikely to be repeated in the evolving wireless broadband future,” wrote Rudy Baca, wireless and media analyst. “While NXTL is likely to continue growing its narrowband business in the short-term, we believe the FCC’s 800 MHz decision is unlikely to survive administrative or judicial review -- putting NXTL back to square one in transitioning to a broadband future.” Precursor noted that “tellingly” -- while Nextel scored a “big regulatory win” -- it still hasn’t signed off on the agreement. “In the end, Precursor believes NXTL is highly likely to sign onto the FCC’s decision because it has no other viable alternative,” Precursor said: “Without the deal, NXTL lacks spectrum to compete in a broadband future.” From Nextel’s viewpoint there are negatives tied to the 800 MHz rebanding plan the FCC approved in July and released Aug. 6, Baca said: “Precursor believes the chief negatives for NXTL are the cost of the deal, which is much more than NXTL wanted or expected, and the very high risk that the decision is overturned on appeal -- at least the 1.9 GHz replacement spectrum part.” Legg Mason analyst Rebecca Arbogast told us she was on the whole impressed with how the FCC acquitted itself in its rationale for the rebanding. “I believe that the spectrum swap raises many legal issues of first impression, which means it could still go either way when it gets to court,” she said Wed. “I've always been sensitive to the risk that the structure of the swap might not pass muster with the courts, but having read the FCC’s justification, in my view it is well done, and I've revised upward my assessment that the courts will ultimately uphold the order. It could, however, still take a while before we get a final decision.”