House Commerce Could Lose Telecom Players in Elections
Four Republican House Commerce Committee members are in close races, with Rep. Wilson (N.M.) Hardest pressed. Wilson, active on telecom matters, is running several points behind N.M. Attorney Gen. Patricia Madrid (D). Rep. Cubin (R-Wyo.), a leader on some Universal Service Fund matters, enjoys a stronger position coming from a staunchly red state, but still faces a strong challenge from Democrat Gary Trauner. Most polls have Cubin, Reps. Ferguson (R-N.J.) and Bass (R-N.H.) leading, but the races could go either way.
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The committee faces major change if Democrats take the majority in the House, as many polls and analysts predict. Republicans could lose 20-35 House seats, political analyst Charlie Cook said. Nationally or locally, the polls lead to an inescapable conclusion, Cook’s latest website commentary said: “It is very ugly for Republicans.” He puts Wilson’s seat in the “toss up” stack he says could go either way.
“This is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974,” Cook said, terming a 30-seat Democratic gain “more likely” than a 15- seat edge, the minimum needed to take control. He and other seers say the outcome hinges on national focus in the days before the vote. Disaster in Iraq or terror attack could radically alter voters’ mood. But as things stand, Republicans are likely to lose the House.
But change is coming at Commerce no matter which party has the majority. Three Democrats are yielding seats to seek other positions: Rep. Brown (O.) is challenging Sen. DeWine (R-O.) and likely to win; Reps. Davis (Fla.) and Strickland (O.) are running for governor. On the Republican side, Rep. Bilirakis (R-Fla.) is retiring; son Gus is running for the seat. Rep. Otter (Ida.) is running for governor.
House leaders decide which members fill vacated committee posts; opponents who beat committee members aren’t guaranteed seats. “We generally pick up a few and lose a few each election,” a Hill staffer said: “Although it’s a loss when someone with a lot of telecom experience leaves, there’s always someone new who comes in who gets excited about the issues.” House Commerce is a popular assignment, often sought by newcomers, especially those with business backgrounds, Hill officials and lobbyists said.
Democrats have the edge nationally among voters, a recent Harris poll said. About 46% of Americans would vote for a Democrat, compared with 31% who would vote for a Republican, according to a nationwide phone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults. Looking only at registered voters, the survey found that 47% said they would choose a Democrat and 32% a Republican. The poll found that 63% of those surveyed have a negative opinion of President Bush, and 74% think Congress is doing a poor job.
These attitudes figure in elections such as Bass’s, where polls show voters fed up with Republicans. Despite soundly defeating entertainment lawyer Paul Hodes last cycle, Bass is struggling in the polls against him this year. Bass enjoys a financial advantage, but Republican credentials don’t help him in a largely Democratic district that went for John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election.