11 Close Races for GOP on Commerce, Judiciary Committees

“If little changes between now and Tuesday, there remains little question that the GOP is headed toward devastating losses,” said political analyst Larry Sabato in commentary on his website. Driving the sea change in voter opinion: American unhappiness over the Republicans’ handling of Iraq war policy, Sabato said.

Several GOP incumbents on the House and Senate Commerce Committees could lose their seats, polls indicate. With a House majority, the Democrats would add Committee members, and the Republicans would need to replace the departed. Here’s a look at the seats in play:

House Commerce Committee

Rep. Brown (D-Ohio) vacated his post to challenge Sen. DeWine (D-Ohio) and looks likely to win, pollsters say. Brown’s seat is likely to remain Democratic, as Democrat candidate Betty Sutton is pulling strong poll numbers against battling Republican Craig Fultin. Brown has been a reluctant supporter of net neutrality regulations. He supported a net neutrality amendment proposed by Telecom Subcommittee Ranking Member Markey (D-Mass.) to the House telecom bill (HR-5252) at the full committee level, after opposing at the subcommittee level.

Rep. Strickland (D-Ohio vacated his seat to run for governor. Democrats are likely to take the seat, as Charlie Wilson’s poll numbers are higher than Republican Chuck Blasdel. Rep. Davis (D-Fla.) also left to run for governor, but again Democrats have nothing to worry about, barring any unusual developments before Election Day. Democratic County Comr. Kathy Castor is running strongly ahead of Republican Eddie Adams Jr.

Republicans face challenges, but they can count retaining at least one open seat: Rep. Mike Bilirakis (R- Fla.), who’s retiring, is stepping aside as his son, Gus, runs against Democratic challenger Phyllis Busansky. Polls show a close race, but Bilirakis’s name recognition with voters give him an edge. Bilirakis was tangentially involved in telecom issues and sponsored only a bill that would ensure availability of spectrum for amateur radio operators.

Rep. Cubin (R-Wyo.) faces a tight race against Democrat challenger Gary Trauner, an Internet entrepreneur who has had the help of top political aides to Democratic Gov. Dave Fredenthal. Cubin is campaigning in a state that leans Republican, but she hurt herself badly during a debate last month when she threatened to slap a wheelchair-bound candidate who has multiple sclerosis for a remark she didn’t like. Cubin has been an active participant on telecom issues. She introduced a bill (HR-2533) to exempt the Universal Service Fund from Anti-Deficiency Act rules, a provision that was ultimately included in the Senate telecom bill.

Rep. Wilson (R-N.M.) faces an extremely close race against Democratic challenger N.M. Attorney Gen. Patricia Madrid. Both candidates raised significant amounts of money and brought big political names to their state in this hotly contested race. Wilson voted against the House telecom bill because it lacked buildout provisions -- a position that came as no surprise to industry lobbyists who know her voting record.

Rep. Bass (R-N.H.) is defending his seat against a challenge from entertainment lawyer Paul Hodes, whose chances are significantly better than when he lost by 20 points against Bass during the last election. Bass is hurt by his association with President Bush, but he has a strong financial base and could pull it out. Working against Bass is that the district tipped Democratic in 2004, and Bass made a controversial vote on the environment that didn’t endear him to voters. Bass hasn’t been very involved in telecom issues.

Rep. Ferguson (R-N.J.) is running slightly ahead of Democratic challenger Linda Stender, a state assemblywoman. Ferguson’s most active work on the telecom committee has been on first responder issues, but he also introduced a bill (HR- 4861) that would impose licensing conditions on digital audio radio to guard against unauthorized distribution of content. Rep. Otter (R-Ida.) vacated his congressional seat to run for governor, after suffering a defeat in the Republican primary by state Rep. Bill Sali. Now Sali is struggling against Democrat attorney Larry Grant, prompting the Republican Congressional Committee to bring an ad campaign to the conservative district in mid-Oct. to bolster his poll numbers. Sali is considered to have a reasonable chance at retaining the seat for Republicans.

House Judiciary Committee

None of the 3 close Republicans races involve candidates active on telecom issues. But if the members lose, the composition of the committee would change. Rep. Hyde (R- Ill.) retired in the 109th Congress, and there’s a close race for his seat between Republican Peter Roskam, an experienced state lawmaker who has the backing of the same social conservatives who supported Hyde. He’s up against a formidable opponent, Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a former National Guard officer who lost both legs in Iraq and announced her candidacy on ABC’s This Week. She has strong support in this Democratic stronghold.

Rep. Green (R-Wis.) vacated his seat to run for governor, opening an opportunity for John Gard, the state Assembly speaker, to run. But he’s facing deep pocketed Democratic physician Steve Kagen, and to give Gard’s campaign a boost, the National Republican Congressional Committee launched some negative ads against Gard calling him “Dr. Millionaire” in TV spots. The district is Bush territory, but Kagen was polling ahead of Gard in the days before the election.

Rep. Hostettler (R-Ind.) is in a tossup race against Democratic challenger Brad Ellsworth, who’s a social conservative. Hostettler refuses to raise PAC money and in past elections has run behind because of his nontraditional campaigns, RealClear Politics says. This year he could be ousted, despite his incumbency advantage. In the days before the election, Ellsworth was about 8 points ahead.

Senate Commerce Committee

Democrats on the committee are considered safe, though Sen. Cantwell (D-Wash.) has been in a tight race. Things improved for after Republican challenger Mike McGavick was forced to reveal that he was cited for drunk driving some years ago, according to Roll Call. Republicans had hoped the GOP veteran could unseat Cantwell, who has been active on telecom issues. She introduced legislation dealing with first responders and was co-sponsor of a number of measures dealing with cyber security, permanent exemption of Anti- Deficiency Act rules for the Universal Service Fund, promoting telecom service in Indian territories and combatting pretexting.

But 2 key Republicans face very tight races: Sens. Burns (Mont.) and Allen (Va.). Burns is up against Democratic challenger Jim Talent, a populist candidate who represents a break from Burns’ association with President Bush. If Burns loses, it would be a major setback for the telecom industry. Despite his foibles and shadowy association with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, he’s considered a consummate politician and team player, Hill and lobbyist sources say. Democrats and Republicans enjoy working with him and he’s able to bring deals together. He has 18 years of experience on the committee. His expertise on Universal Service Fund issues and broadband service to rural areas is a particular strength. This is a close race and Burns could pull it out. Those familiar with his campaign style have warned not to write him off because he often runs close races and wins.

Allen is running one of the tightest and most closely watched races in Congress, if only because of the notoriety of both candidates. Allen used the term “macaca” that many interpret as a racial slur. His Democratic challenger, Jim Webb, is unpopular for comments he has made about women serving in the military. This tight race had poll results teetering between the candidates in the final days before the election. Allen has been a leader on telecom issues, introducing many telecom bills, among them measures to establish a digital and wireless network technology, to make permanent the Internet tax moratorium, to guard against Internet spyware, an antipretexting bill and a bill ordering the FCC to complete its order on white spaces.

Senate Judiciary Committee

Democrats are safe on the Committee. The only Republican in trouble is Sen. DeWine (R-Ohio), who faces a possible defeat by Brown. DeWine’s vulnerability is his Republican roots and association with Bush. Although the state inclines Republican, the polls show Democrats surging ahead with Strickland likely to win the governor’s race. DeWine has been moderately involved on telecom issues. He introduced a bill that received some bipartisan support that would authorize electronic surveillance for suspected terrorists under certain situations.