Over-The-Air TV Viewing Seen Diminishing After DTV Switch

Over-the-air viewing has been shrinking steadily, and in response to next year’s DTV transition, many more Americans may decide to sign up for pay-TV, the executives said. “Congress will have to wrestle at that point with whether they're still committed to an over-the-air system,” said Bob Okun, NBC vice president.

“That’s why mobile is so highly important,” said Glenn Reitmeier, NBC vice president of technology standards, policy and strategy: “It becomes the public policy justification to keep over the air broadcasting.” And mobile has a compelling case to make for that, he said. There ultimately will be 300 million-plus new mobile DTV receivers in the U.S., according to the Open Mobile Video Coalition. They also claim that by 2012 the service will bring $1.1 billion in annual sales to TV stations and $900 million to the networks. “It’s a growth business, a new technoloy business and it’s an economic stimulus,” Reitmeier said.

Mobile DTV service should be free and ad-supported, as traditional broadcast TV has been, said John Eck, president of NBC TV Network and Media Works. Some think that subscription-based services “will be a panacea,” he said. “But if that’s the way we go, it’s going to look like MediaFLO,” he said. Ultimately, broadcasters will develop new services using digital spectrum and there will be many mobile applications, he said. “I honestly believe the game hasn’t even started.”

Inevitably, not every viewer will enjoy a seamless DTV shift, Okun said. The switch will come as a new administration is settling in, and perhaps with a different power balance in Congress, he said. The political groundwork has been done to let public officials deflect blame if the switch isn’t an utter success, he said. “I'm not sure what the government can do at that point,” he said.

Ahead of the analog cutoff, NBC is helping affiliates get ready, said Ian Trombley, NBC Universal executive vice president of media distribution. The network has set up a Web site on which affiliates can post updates on their progress so they can see how far along other station groups are, and NBC can monitor affiliate efforts at large, he said. NBC worries over how cable operators will convert NBC-owned and affiliated stations’ HD signals to analog, and is pushing a new Active Format Description technology along with Hearst- Argyle and Tribune. Cable operators would need to buy into AFD-ready gear, and broadcasters could decide in real time how their signals are converted from the 16:9 digital aspect ratio to the 4:3 analog ratio, he said. -- Josh Wein

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Broadcasters expect the 90-day expiration period won’t change for NTIA-issued DTV converter box coupons, Okun said. “I think we're all under the assumption that’s not going to be extended,” he said.

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Broadcast officials voiced pessimism about prospects for testing an early DTV switch market by market. That would demand broad coordination among local stations and a willing local government, said attorney Bryan Tramont, former FCC chief of staff. “That’s a tough political ask,” he said. Broadcasters mostly have been cool to the idea for varied reasons, attorney Rob Rini said. Some of his clients heard overtures about a possible early switch, he said. “There were concerns about ratings, about DTV converter box availability and LPTV issues,” he said. PBS stations in the market also worried about an early analog shutoff’s effect on fund-raising, he said. And there’s danger of national and local messages conflicting, NAB Vice President Jonathan Collegio said. A test market might have been smart a few years ago, but now “it just may be a little too late for that,” Rini said. Not so, said FCC Media Bureau Chief Monica Desai. “We're still optimistic,” she said. “I wouldn’t say it’s too late.”