Senate Commerce Committee Shakeup Looms Next Congress

That could offer Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., a chance to run the committee (CD March 31 p3). Rockefeller has strong views on speeding broadband deployment, especially in rural areas, and on tightening consumer protection in the wireless industry. He also would be tougher on the FCC than Inouye or Sen. Ted Stevens, R- Alaska, have been, and likely would fight attempts to cut universal service funding.

Republican leadership of the committee is faltering as Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, goes on trial next month, accused of criminal ethics violations, as he endures a tough reelection race. Even before Stevens’ July 29 indictment (CD July 30 p1), he was trailing his Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, and most polls show him behind, 41 percent to 51 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports. The Cook Political Report rates Stevens’ seat as a “toss up,” as it calls seats that could go to either party.

But in a July 30 survey Rasmussen found half of respondents supporting Stevens, and saying he should not resign. The Cook Political Report and CQ Politics rate the Stevens race as “leaning” toward a Democratic win. In the Aug. 26 Alaska GOP primary, Stevens faces six challengers. Begich is expected to win his Aug. 26 primary, CQ Politics reported. Alaska has voted Republican in 11 of the 12 elections in which it has voted for president, but Democrats see the Stevens race as a chance to gain a seat.

The two other committee Republicans up for reelection also face difficult races. Sen. John Sununu of New Hampshire is seen as at risk of losing his seat to Democratic challenger Jeanne Shaheen. The former governor consistently leads Sununu in polls. Last week Rasmussen Reports released results of a telephone survey showing Shaheen ahead 51 percent to 40 percent, enough to qualify Sununu, the Senate’s youngest member, as “the most endangered incumbent of Election 2008,” Rasmussen said. Shaheen has led Sununu by seven or eight percentage points through most of the campaign, the group said. Sununu, deemed a maverick, has antagonized members of both parties with his outspoken views.

Republican Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon is in a tight race but recently pulled slightly ahead of state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Cook rates the Smith and Sununu seats toss ups, meaning either party could win. Smith’s strong anti-war statements are expected to help him. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Smith ahead 47 percent to 39 percent. Incumbents who poll below 50 percent are considered vulnerable.

The news is brighter for the four committee Democrats up for reelection, all of whom are expected to win with safe margins: Rockefeller and Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, John Kerry of Massachusetts and Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey. Democrats are on track to pick up five to seven Senate seats this election, said Cook Political Report political analyst Jennifer Duffy.

Republicans have had trouble raising money this cycle, prompting Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., and Republican Senatorial Committee head, to say in a Friday statement that he has to cut candidates’ budgets. “I recently challenged my colleagues to step up to the plate and help me provide the resources our candidates need to compete in races across the country,” Ensign said. “It has become clear that my call has gone largely unanswered.”

Ensign, a Commerce Committee member but not running for reelection, has years of experience on telecom, including chairing last year’s Senate Republican High-Tech Task Force. Smith is chairman now, and Sununu and Stevens belong, as does Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, who stepped in for Stevens as committee ranking member when he had to step down pending resolution of his ethics trial. - - Anne Veigle