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Despite many warnings that Internet growth is unsustainable,

Despite many warnings that Internet growth is unsustainable, its predicted collapse didn’t happen and won’t, Analysys Mason said in an Internet Society-commissioned study. The latest alarms appear to stem mostly from the burgeoning global demand for mobile broadband access and…

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usage, it said. But the same forces that met earlier challenges are already addressing the new demands, particularly in developing countries, it said. Generally, in the face of new demands, networks can either boost their capacity or find ways to reduce the capacity required, the study said. Both approaches are usually followed, based on several overlapping responses, it said: (1) New core and access technologies are developed to increase capacity in existing networks and make new investment more efficient. (2) Investments are made to upgrade existing networks with the new technology such as fiber or submarine cables, and where upgrades aren’t possible or sufficient to meet demand, networks are extended. (3) New technologies and business models are created to distribute content to many locations, making it closer to end users and cheaper to deliver. Three related changes that have altered traffic flow to increase its delivery are Internet Exchange Points (IXPs), content delivery networks and cloud services, it said. Those trends have lowered the demand on international and national infrastructure by allowing providers to move content to caches in IXPs and data centers close to end-users, it said. Along with infrastructure investment, that activity has significantly improved Internet sustainability in the face of growing demand and new applications, it said. All indicators show that this process is repeating itself as pressure on the Internet grows, particularly those of meeting mobile broadband demand in emerging markets, it said. Many recent doubts suggest that the issue of sustainability is global when in fact developed and developing regions are at very different stages, with telecom markets in developing counties growing faster and receiving more investment than those in the more saturated nations, it said. The evidence shows that multinational operators are already opting to direct their investments to developing areas, which are also getting significant funding from domestic and regional players, it said. Those investments should ensure that Internet growth is sustainable without any global regulation, it said. Emerging markets will face challenges akin to or more acute than those in developing countries when deploying network infrastructure nationwide because of low income levels and/or high unemployment in some regions. But there’s no evidence that those shortfalls in meeting demand can’t be addressed with best-practice policy and regulation that focus on more investment and access, it said. In developing areas, investment is taking place in submarine cables to connect coastal countries to one another and other continents, and in terrestrial fiber to connect ISP points of presence to submarine cable landing stations and enable ISPs in landlocked nations to access submarine cable capacity in adjacent countries. There is also investment in traffic exchange solutions to allow ISPs to exchange traffic with each other and access content caches; and in last-mile access, especially mobile infrastructure, to cover populations and/or be upgraded to offer broadband Internet access. In addition, content providers are investing in ways to deliver traffic to developing economies, it said. Examples such as Google Global Cache’s African network with cache servers and points of presence, and Facebook Zero’s low bandwidth text version of its mobile site, show that there’s a connection between the value content providers receive from delivering their content to end-users in developing markets, and the investments they're willing to make to make the process more efficient, Analysys Mason said. It’s true that there are still roadblocks to the expansion of mobile Internet access, given the amount of territory to be covered and the income levels of potential users, it said. Those challenges need policy and regulatory responses such as market liberalization and/or targeted, creative policy and regulatory access programs. But there’s “no indication that the Internet and its growth are unsustainable in developing regions, or that any outside global intervention is required,” it said.