Charter Opposition Unlikely To Derail Its Deals, New Street Says

Street Research emailed investors. New Street also said the objections don't alter its opinion of the transaction likely being approved in March, with additional conditions likely but nothing "so great as to affect the material prospects" of New Charter. That Netflix is backing the transaction disarms many arguments that it could put online video distribution (OVD) in jeopardy, and Dish Network's opposition -- repeating much of what it said against the now-abandoned Comcast purchase of TWC -- is weaker this time around, New Street said. The Charter/TWC/BHN opposition also lacks the level of pushback Comcast/TWC saw in the form of opponents "hiring big name economists ... to do the kind of analysis necessary ... to block the deal," it said. The opposition comments that were due Tuesday (see 1510140009">1510140009) also didn't make a case that New Charter will have the kind of market power to stifle OVD composition, the analysts wrote. Numerous opponents brought up the specter of coordinated effects, but that likely won't scotch the deals given that antitrust laws would ban such moves, though it may result in some imposed conditions aimed at preventing coordinated actions, New Street said. Charter's voluntary three-year interconnection commitments likely will shift, perhaps being extended to five years, and there might be some government-imposed "tweaks" to them, New Street said. Meanwhile, some proposed conditions, like Dish recommending a mandatory unbundling of its cable network, likely won't be seriously considered, it said.