Political TV Ad Spending Down; FCC Database Offers Some Insight
Purchases of TV political spots are down from what was expected for 60 days before the general election, analysts said in interviews Friday. In 2012, $2.5 billion was spent on political ads between Labor Day and Election Day, said Kantar Media Campaign Media Analysis Group General Manager Steven Passwaiter: “This cycle, we're not even close.” Low spending on TV ads reduces revenue for TV stations and cable networks, and means there's less data for entities monitoring political ad spending to collect, said Robert Maguire, political nonprofits investigator for the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP).
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Lower numbers are caused by some unexpected characteristics of the 2016 presidential campaign, such as Republican candidate Donald Trump's low spending on TV commercials, and the choices of other big political spenders, such as the Koch brothers, not to plow money into TV buys, Passwaiter said. When one candidate in an election doesn't spend big, it can also lead to that candidate's opponent spending less, Passwaiter said.
The FCBA Mass Media Committee meanwhile held a brown-bag lunch on political ads Thursday. Communications Daily when attending was informed the event that included FCC officials and a broadcast lawyer was off the record. Friday, the publication's publisher sent a letter to the association reiterating past objections to holding such events off the record.
Despite the less-than-expected spending at the top of the ticket, TV ad spending on down-ballot races is robust, BIA/Kelsey Chief Economist Mark Fratrik told us. He believes spending in 2016 could surpass the 2012 race, though he said it would be better if there were more spending at the top of the ticket.
Low spending on TV ads may also be behind an industry perception that broadcasters and the FCC face fewer complicated questions this election, broadcast attorney Jack Goodman told us. Though the date after which the commission’s lowest unit rate rules apply passed recently, Goodman said he has received few questions about the rules. Another reason could be the increase in ad buys from PACs, which aren't subject to the same rules candidates are, Goodman said.
A more typical rate of TV spot buying would be better for the CRP's new online ad data tool, which takes advantage of recent FCC rule changes requiring cable, satellite and broadcasters to file political ad information online, Maguire told us. Since those rules have been in effect only since July and full compliance isn't required until the end of the year, the ad data tool is unlikely to get a very useful sample this election cycle, Maguire said. By the next wave of congressional elections, though, Maguire expects to be able to connect the dots between candidates and the ad agencies their PACs use, and follow “correspondence and other filings as they pertain to the candidates, super PACs, dark money groups and other organizations running political and issue ads,” CRP's website said.
Since many of the entities filing ad buy documents are doing so for the first time, Maguire said some of the documents have errors or leave out required information. As time refines the process, CRP may be able to track entities that consistently file paperwork that isn't in compliance with FCC rules, Maguire said.