Status Quo Expected for Export Controls Under Clinton; Trump's Stance Unclear
A Hillary Clinton presidency wouldn’t bring discernible changes to U.S. export controls and sanctions policy, but impacts from a Trump administration are less clear, according to an analysis posted on Wiley Rein's American Trade and Manufacturing Blog (here). “In any event, much depends upon international developments which, as we saw in connection with Ukraine, can change the international sanctions situation quite quickly,” said Scott Nance, a lawyer at the firm. Clinton would likely narrowly observe the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, after she helped negotiate its pre-approval precursor, the Joint Plan of Action, Nance said.
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Although Clinton has a “well-publicized” aversion to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian government, unilateral U.S. sanctions on Russia under Clinton would likely be hamstrung as the U.S. generally works to align its sanctions against Russia with the EU, which is currently opposed to additional sanctions against the country. Moreover, Clinton hasn’t indicated a common commitment to President Barack Obama’s liberalization of relations with Cuba, and although there is no reason to signal she would reverse any of his measures in this area, the rate of “softening” of relations could slow. But U.S. sanctions policy on Cuba will largely depend on congressional developments, as many sanctions against that nation are statutorily imposed. Clinton has indicated a potential increase in the use of U.S. sanctions, but it is premature to point out any specific examples, and no “appreciable liberalization” of U.S. export laws is likely, Nance said.
Donald Trump’s stance on sanctions and export controls isn’t as clear, as he has no reviewable record and has made few statements on the subject, he said. “Mr. Trump has stated that he favors a less-interventionist foreign policy overall, and has called for better relations with Russia in particular,” he said. “Whether this would translate into any liberalization of U.S. sanctions and export control policy, however, is unclear.”