Pai Seen as Strong Candidate for Permanent FCC Chairman; Trump Big Wild Card

But President-elect Donald Trump could easily choose somebody else to become permanent chairman, various parties said. American Enterprise Institute Scholar Jeffrey Eisenach, a Trump transition team member, is seen by some as a potential chairman. Indiana State Sen. Brandt Hershman also continues to be seen as an FCC candidate, given his connections to Vice President-elect Mike Pence (see 1611170041). Some said they thought Hershman would have a better chance as the third Republican commissioner, not chairman. The same appears true of some congressional Republican aides, such as David Redl of the House Commerce Committee and David Quinalty of the Senate Commerce Committee, said a Republican FCC watcher: "They're not going to jump Ajit. That doesn't mean they couldn't be commissioner."

"It's this total guessing game. I think it really comes down to who speaks to Trump last," said Doug Brake, telecom policy analyst at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. "Ajit is well liked by Mitch McConnell. ... My guess is [Trump] does put somebody in there he knows," said Jay Driscoll, a Forbes-Tate lobbyist. "This is going to be run by five or six people in Trump Tower," said a Republican industry representative. Pai is well positioned if the choice is a communications "inside play," because he has the experience and knowledge "to make his way through the minefields," said the rep. Bottom line: Pai has as good a chance as anybody, but nobody knows because Trump may want to make a splash with his own pick.

Cleland said a Trump FCC leadership decision doesn't seem likely until January. Cooley attorney and former Commissioner Robert McDowell said the decision isn't usually announced until closer to Inauguration Day, Jan. 20. Another Republican ex-FCC member, Kathleen Abernathy, said leadership issues at other departments and agencies could remain a higher priority for a while. “The FCC is in good shape," said Abernathy, until recently executive vice president of Frontier Communications but still at the company. "You have a 2-1 majority. You have very reliable Republican commissioners.” FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler and Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel, two of the three Democratic commissioners, will soon be leaving the agency.

In the meantime, the Trump FCC "landing team" held meetings at the commission in recent days. Wheeler said he had two "good meetings" with the team and separately with Eisenach (see 1612150061), and fellow Democratic Commissioner Mignon Clyburn also met with the team, said an aide. Aides to other commissioners, Eisenach and other Trump team members didn't comment.

McDowell said he worked closely with the transition team of Barack Obama after he won the presidency in 2008, even though they were from different parties. "We talked a lot about FCC process and the management of the agency, and the daily grind," he said. "How does the machinery of government work, and what can be done differently. That gets talked about more than the policy differences." Trump team conversations with FCC Republicans could be more about policy priorities and timetables, he said, noting personnel could be another topic.

The landing team could be "planning strategy for how to approach dismantling some of the outgoing chairman's policies," particularly broadband reclassification under Title II of the Communications Act, Brake said. The team also "serves notice to the outgoing administration that we're here to keep a close eye on things," said a Republican industry representative. "They're not doing anything that binds the ultimate chairman."

Republicans intent on scrapping net neutrality and Title II broadband could run into some of the same problems they have been encountering as they prepare legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act, said industry consultant David Goodfriend, a Democratic former White House and FCC official. "They want to get rid of Obamacare, but if you touch it, you own it. The same thing is true with technology and open internet," he said. "It's certainly possible they'll just burn the house down," he said: If that occurs and people's Internet service isn't working the way they want it to, "guys like me will be blaming Trump and the Republicans."

"Follow the people," said an industry attorney, who said the choice for chairman was far more important than transition team activity. There's much consensus that Pai will at least be named interim chairman. Even Republican Commissioner Michael O'Rielly, the other possibility, has said he has no reason to believe Pai won't be named interim chairman (see 1612130074).

"In the absence of any strong signals from the transition, Commissioner Pai will likely be designated chairman" on a more permanent basis, Cleland said. "The calculus at the transition would be: designating commissioner Pai full chairman from the beginning rather than waiting several months for the full chairperson to get vetted and confirmed, which is not the fast way to get started. We’ve heard nothing that is negative about Commissioner Pai, and combining that with the Trump administration wanting to proceed quickly to restore economic and employment growth, it wouldn't be surprising if Pai is designated chairman from the beginning.”

Cleland and others noted Pai's connections to Sessions, who would head DOJ, which works closely with the FCC on transaction reviews and some other matters. Pai also issued a high laudatory statement of Sessions when Trump tapped him as his attorney general choice. Sessions was one of Trump's earliest major supporters.

"Ajit is unbelievably well qualified, both politically and substantively, and would be ready to go on day one and do a fine job,” said a Democratic attorney. "It would not raise a single eyebrow. There are people who don’t agree with him ideologically, but nobody would say he and his team aren’t capable of running the agency.”