Leadership Changes Coming to Both House Ways and Means, Senate Finance

The Trade Subcommittee's most senior Democrat next year, after Neal, would be Lloyd Doggett of Texas. However, all Democrats on the committee may bid on subcommittee chair positions, based on seniority, and Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore., also has more seniority than the current ranking member, Bill Pascrell. And Pascrell is tied in seniority with Ron Kind, one of the pro-trade Democrats in the House. Pascrell, from New Jersey, has already written his colleagues asking for their support to be the trade subcommittee chairman.

Pascrell, who sent a letter on Nov. 7, said he would lead the trade subcommittee collaboratively, and he would continue to balance varying views on trade. "We all represent industries and small businesses being negatively impacted by the tariffs on imports from China, tariffs on steel and aluminum, and subsequent retaliatory tariffs," he said. "I believe in strong trade enforcement but have long said that tariffs should only be implemented as a tool to achieve a clear end, not as a destructive or counterproductive weapon used haphazardly against friends and foes alike."

He pointed to his relationship with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and said, "Throughout my time in Congress I have passionately (some might say too passionately!) stood against trade policies harmful to working Americans."

Over in the Senate, the retirement of Utah's Orrin Hatch clears the way for a new Finance Committee chairman. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, could have the chairmanship if he wants it, but he may choose to stay as the Judiciary Committee chairman. If so, Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho would ascend. He voted against NAFTA when he was in the House of Representative, but has voted for trade deals ever since, according to a chart on Crowell & Moring's International Trade Law Blog.

While there may be increased oversight on the sections 232 and 301 tariffs that Pascrell alluded to, the biggest task for the committee in 2019 is drafting an implementing bill for the NAFTA replacement -- if they agree to take it up at all.

The Crowell & Moring lawyers noted on the blog that environmental groups will advocate against the new NAFTA. "We expect House Democrats to seek additional concessions from the administration, particularly on the enforceability of the new labor provisions, on the environment, or possibly in the area of intellectual property protections," the lawyers said. "The agreement could theoretically be voted on at any point after publication of the [International Trade Commission] report [in March], but difficulties in assembling the needed votes for implementing legislation would likely delay the process. The Trump Administration may still attempt to withdraw from the existing NAFTA as a tactic to force Congress to pass [the new NAFTA, known as] USMCA. It remains unclear how House Democrats or Senate Republicans would react to such a threat," they wrote.

Grant Aldonas, a former chief international trade counsel for Senate Finance, said at a Washington International Trade Association program Nov. 8 the fact that the AFL-CIO has not endorsed Lighthizer's changes to NAFTA on labor suggests that there could be problems getting the deal passed. He noted that incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was a driving factor behind withdrawing fast-track to thwart the U.S.-Colombia trade deal for a time. Of Neal, he said, "he certainly is more pro-market than the party as a whole," but suggested that the party -- led by Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders -- is shifting left.