Close-Proximity GEO Needs International Norms, Cooperation
The commercial space universe is moving toward satellites operating in close proximity, such as for satellite servicing and inspections, but the technology and the policies to allow such work is lagging, space policy experts said at a Secure World Foundation/Center for Strategic International Studies webinar Wednesday. As space becomes more congested and more nations and private sectors are in space, "the more states worry" about close approaches in geostationary orbit (GEO) and low earth orbit, said Almudena Azcarate Ortega, U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research associate researcher-space security and weapons of mass destruction programs. Space "already suffers from a significant lack of trust" and approaches done without consent or transparency would increase that, she said.
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How close-proximity operations are perceived "could literally make the difference between what's a nonevent" and an international incident, said Audrey Schaffer, National Security Council space policy director. She advocated satellite-to-satellite interaction norms "to avoid the risk of miscalculation and misperception." She said principles behind such norms -- transparency, coordination and safe separation distances -- can be tough to define. Schaffer said Russia's anti-satellite test last fall (see 2111160063) was "irresponsible and reckless," and consensus has been growing since then against debris-generating tests. She said there could be further policy progress in that direction in coming months.
Schaffer said there's an international legal framework that seemingly could allow cooperation and agreements between nations on orbital debris cleanup, "we just haven't put it into practice ... to test it." Until then, she said, it's hard to say what legal gaps might exist.
Many of the algorithms used in space situational awareness (SSA) tracking of objects and predictions of future directions were developed in the 1970s and '80s and aren't intended for an environment that includes rendezvous and close-proximity operation, said Dan Oltrogge, integrated operations and research director at space operations services company Comspoc.
An international system of sharing SSA data “is quite a ways away,” but in the interim, like-minded countries need to collaborate, Oltrogge said. He said the Commerce Department wants to establish a space traffic management system, and that could play a role in a multinational sharing and collaboration construct. He said existing SSA data is insufficient, making it harder for satellite operators to discern what possible conjunctions are a real risk. He said there should be a route for plugging commercial SSA capabilities and data into any kind of data sharing.
The international Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee has guidelines for GEO operation that include some close-proximity operations, but international standards and guidelines evolve too slowly for how quickly the space domain is moving, said Alessandro Cacioni, Inmarsat flight dynamics director. He said a lack of a formal data exchange, coordination or data clarity is a bigger problem than close conjunctions themselves. He said an Inmarsat satellite two years ago was launched and on its way to its licensed position in the GEO belt when the company found out a Chinese satellite launched shortly before had parked there. He said the company didn't get a response from China or the operator for six months. Inmarsat ended up putting its satellite 0.3 degrees away -- "not ideal, but still usable," he said.
SWF and CSIS also unveiled the satellitedashboard.org tool developed with the University of Texas-Austin for visualizing satellite close approaches, using satellite orbital data from various sources.
The EU's Space Surveillance and Tracking program, which provides SSA services and space coordination for EU member states and satellite operators, plans to add more European nations, which will improve its sensor capabilities, said Marc Becker, SSA policy officer at German space agency DLR. He said its monitoring of GEO has good visibility in part of the GEO belt but gaps in others, but that should be addressed by the addition of more telescopes by the end of next year. GEO orbit overall is "relatively calm" and many objects there are well tracked, but "the situation is far from perfect," he said.