Former China Ambassador: Trump Team 'Has Given as Well as It's Gotten'
Nicholas Burns, a career diplomat who served as ambassador to China in the Biden administration, told the Atlantic Council that while the Trump administration may have miscalculated "that China didn't have real weight to throw around," he also thinks President Donald Trump has been right to be "tough-minded" on China's economic policies.
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Burns said that while it was inevitable that the Chinese would respond "blow for blow" in a second round of the trade war, he disagrees with commentary that the U.S. has been outmaneuvered as the Chinese have capitalized on chokepoints in supply chains they control.
"They've kind of negated each other," he said of the two sides' export controls and tariff hikes. He said that in terms of tactics, the Trump team "has given as well as it's gotten."
Burns did criticize Trump for imposing high tariffs on Japan, South Korea, India and the EU on Liberation Day, because, he said, the combined economic heft of those allies is far stronger than China, whereas China and the U.S. are more of an even match.
But while he said he thinks the administration is still "trying to define what success is" at the conclusion of this trade war, he also said that Trump assembled a great team. He said his successor as ambassador, former Sen. David Purdue, is excellent, and he called Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent "the right person to lead these negotiations," with a very skilled assistant in U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. "Greer knows these issues in and out," Burns said.
The issues Burns is referring to are overcapacity that is deindustralizing other countries, whose firms have to succeed in the market without as heavy government intervention as China employs; intellectual property theft; and technology transfer requirements.
The first issue, in particular, is getting recognized by more countries, he said, noting that India, Mexico, South Africa, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Turkey and the EU have all raised tariffs on Chinese imports in the last year.
"This shows President Trump is not an outlier -- President Trump is actually pushing on an open door," he said.
"I don't think the Chinese are playing a winning hand," he said, though he also said that the Chinese negotiating team is very impressive, and is "filled with smart, experienced, capable people."
Burns said that he thinks it's good for Trump to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a summit in South Korea in two weeks, and he said the fact that Trump is very involved in strategy and tactics in this trade war is "not a bad thing," especially since Xi is also so dominant in his country's decisions.
He was asked what advice he would give ahead of that negotiating session.
"Here's what I hope doesn't happen," he said. "I think it's very important that the United States not give in and cease or limit their export controls and sanctions on these dual-use technologies that China desperately wants to import from our most sophisticated companies."
He added, "President Biden was very clear that the national security interests of the United States ... far exceed the interests of one or two or three American companies. The future of American power... is far more important than one company's balance sheet."
He said that Biden administration policymakers never believed that by withholding advanced chips, they would keep China from matching U.S. capabilities in AI. "But we thought if we could slow them down for several years, it would be worth it."
He said the U.S. should keep the status quo on Taiwan policy. "Those would be the red lines that would really make it a failed negotiation" if the U.S. weakened either position.