Kaine: More Republicans Rejecting IEEPA Could Get Trump to Moderate Stance

Kaine, D-Va., who sat down for a Q&A with congressional reporters earlier that day, said he doesn't know if there would be more than four Republicans supporting the Brazil measure, since it was the first time that it would get a vote. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., has co-sponsored Kaine's efforts to challenge tariff emergencies across the board; Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, also voted in April to rescind the Canada emergency.

Kaine said he expects a vote on the emergency declared on Liberation Day and a vote on the Canadian emergency over the next two days.

"It's tough under [the International Emergency Economic Powers Act] to get it through two houses [of Congress] and get it by the veto, override the veto that would be likely, but I did learn in the first Trump term that the President is responsive to things like this when he sees Republicans starting to vote against his policies, even in small numbers -- that makes an impression on him and can often cause him to alter his behavior," he said.

Kaine didn't contest the fentanyl tariffs on Mexico, or the 20% fentanyl tariffs on China, he said, because he doesn't dispute that fentanyl smuggling is an emergency, even if he doesn't think tariffs are the best approach to fighting it.

"But it is ridiculous to say that fentanyl is an emergency with respect to Canada, and it's a pretext that's just being used to pour more and more and more tariffs on Canada," he said.

Kaine quoted language from the IEEPA as he scoffed at the second tranche of tariffs on Brazilian exports. "The unusual and extreme emergency that threatens the United States, that emanates in all or in part outside the United States, is the Brazilian decision to prosecute Donald Trump's friend. How is that an emergency? If that's an emergency, then anything is an emergency."

Kaine said that the price of coffee has climbed about 20% since the beginning of the year because of those tariffs. Brazilian beans are about 31% of U.S. imports -- by far, the largest supplier.

He actually understated the commodity's price rise. According to data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of a pound of ground coffee is up 30% through September.

In response to a question from International Trade Today on whether the refusal of the House of Representatives to allow a vote on the emergencies discourages Republicans from voting against the policy, Kaine said the rule change in the House is "because they're so afraid to vote on tariffs. They're so afraid. Why are they afraid to vote on tariffs? They're afraid to cross Donald Trump. But they also know tariffs are bad, so they're caught in this bizarre conundrum. Their change of the definition of a legislative day for purposes of this statute, so that it never ripens .... demonstrates that they know it's bad policy. Demonstrates that they know it's really unpopular."

In the Senate, Kaine said, many Republicans told him, "I think you're right," when he tried to end the Canada emergency earlier in the year, but that they didn't want to undermine the president in his first 100 days of the term. But, he said, not only is there the fear of getting primaried, there's also fear for their safety after Republicans saw the harassment their colleagues received when they questioned whether they should confirm Pete Hegseth to lead the Pentagon.

Kaine says he knows Republican senators are hearing the same complaints he is from constituents, and so it will become more difficult "for them to just close their eyes and say, I'm signing up for whatever the President wants to do."

He added, "I gotta believe there will be a moment where that motive," to help the people of their respective states, "will overcome fear for whatever reason."

Kaine was asked: What if the Supreme Court overturns IEEPA's use for tariffs?

Kaine said he believes the Supreme Court is looking at whether the IEEPA statute can be used for tariffs more than whether these emergencies are legitimate. He said Congress may need to tighten up the language in the IEEPA statute if the court decides it does provide for tariffs.

But even if the court blesses the tariffs, "I would still be out here on board trying to convince my colleagues that Brazil prosecuting [former president Jair] Bolsonaro is not an emergency," he said. "If the emergency is a fake, we're going to challenge it." Bolsanaro was prosecuted for encouraging an attempted coup to remain in office after losing a re-election bid, just as Trump was, in Georgia.

Kaine talked about the cost of tariffs to businesses and consumers in his state, including the aluminum tariffs, which these votes cannot rescind, as they were levied under Section 232. Some analysts say that the administration is expanding the scope of goods under Section 232 tariffs in case it loses in court on the IEEPA.

Kaine said reforming the Section 232 statute so it doesn't give the president such broad authority to declare an import damages national security is something that is "a hard sell in [the] Finance [Committee] now." However, if Democrats retake the Senate, he said, he would push for changes in the statute. He noted he signed on to a bill introduced by former Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. That bill was the stronger of the two reform bills introduced in the Senate during the first Trump term. Neither progressed to a committee vote.

Kaine said he's also nervous that this Trump administration will trash the USMCA, which is still offering protection to the majority of exports from Canada and Mexico, despite the IEEPA tariffs.

"I think this is a huge achievement of President Trump term one, and I think it would be better to be renegotiating," he said. He was referring to Trump's anger over an ad from the Ontario government that used audio critical of tariffs from President Ronald Reagan. "To say I'm stopping talks because I didn't like an ad -- who does this?"

He added, "So I am worried about President Trump snatching defeat from the jaws of victory."

Kaine allied himself with Reagan, in saying that he's for using tariffs for specific uses, such as trade remedies for softwood lumber, but that generally, he's against them.

"But I'm also against letting presidents just invent a reason to use emergency power to do all kinds of things," he said. "The votes are about tariffs, and they're about the economic destruction of tariffs, but they are also really about how much will we let a president get away with? Do my colleagues have a gag reflex or not in terms of the powers of the Constitution? Are we just going to allow the trade power which is handed to Congress, or the war power which is handed to Congress, or the appropriations power which is handed to Congress, or the nominations, advise and consent power which is handed to the Senate -- are we just going to allow those powers to be taken over by this president or any president?"