US Focused More on Preserving Truce With China Than Negotiating Agreement: Experts

Joe Damond, chair of international trade policy at Crowell Global Advisors and former deputy assistant U.S. trade representative for Asia, said that he does not "hear so much about there being an actual trade agreement change" but rather about maintaining the current truce, "which is basically keeping us where we were at the beginning of the year."

Wendy Cutler, former acting deputy USTR and now senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the administration has struggled to move beyond the truce because it has been unable to reach a shared understanding with Beijing on commitments already announced. “There was talk about a written text out by Thanksgiving, then it was the end of November,” she said. “Now I'm hearing there may be no text that's issued, even if it's negotiated.”

Cutler said ongoing disagreements over details such as critical minerals and the timing of soybean purchases have forced negotiators to repeatedly revisit prior understandings. “It just seems they keep needing to revisit and to clarify and to reach a joint understanding, a common understanding, of what they've already agreed to," she said. "And until they've done that, it's very hard to move on to new issues."

Cutler said the administration appears focused on maintaining stability ahead of President Trump’s planned April visit to China. “He wants a successful trip,” she said. “He wants things to announce and to sign.” Until that visit, she said, the "talking point" for the administration is that "things are going well," with China.

Damond pointed to the recent decision to relax export controls on advanced chips to China as evidence that the U.S. is trying not to rock the boat (see 2512080059). He said the move appeared to be a major concession, "in exchange for which it appears there was nothing given."

The Trump administration "has not missed an opportunity to use leverage too many times this year," Damond said. "But this seems like a huge one."

Cutler said the decision may be a part of secret negotiations, but also wondered if President Donald Trump is not under "a lot of pressure" from "certain CEOs." She said that not only was this an important decision, "absent any big concession in return," but that including export controls in trade negotiations will have future ramifications: "When we look back on this period in trade, it's going to be something that will be noticed and will be looked at for years to come."

Cutler called out the administration’s repeated claims that China is on track with implementing its commitments, pointing to confusion over soybean purchase targets. The fact sheet on the U.S.-China trade truce stated that China would procure 12.5 million metric tons in the current calendar year, she said, but that timeline has since been reinterpreted to cover a longer growing season extending into 2026.

China is already required to purchase another 25 million tons during the 2026 growing season. “So how is this going to work? I don't really know,” Cutler said.

While the administration is emphasizing that relations with China are “on a constructive path,” the truce remains vulnerable, she said: “We have seen that things just come out of nowhere when it comes to China that can really lead to tension and to strains in the relationship very quickly.”

For now, she said, preserving the truce has become the primary objective: “Just keeping this truce intact is kind of a full-time negotiating job.”