LA Port Volumes, US Economy Said Poised to Hold Up in 2026 Despite Uncertainty

"We'll probably see single-digit declines in overall volume on the import side compared to this year, mainly because you've still got some pretty high inventories throughout the nation," Seroka said.

While headwinds influencing port volumes abound -- from the pending U.S. Supreme Court decision on the legality of the tariffs administered under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, to questions about affordability, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and an evolving relationship with China -- "nobody's canceling a lot of purchase orders right now. And for retailers, those orders go into Asian factories three and four months in advance of getting ready" to ship from Asia to LA, Seroka said, so "I'm still feeling OK overall."

Indeed, the National Retail Federation recently noted that, even though IEEPA tariffs have contributed to macroeconomic uncertainty in the U.S. and could weaken cargo demand in the fourth quarter of this year into the first half of next year, the trade group also expects 2025 holiday sales to grow 4.2% over last year to just over $1 trillion.

Factors that helped support the U.S. economy for the first three quarters of 2025 included companies' efforts to front-load imports from China as early as late 2024 and significant investments in artificial intelligence, according to Constance Hunter, chief economist with Economist Intelligence Unit, a research and analysis firm. Hunter was the port's guest for the monthly briefing.

However, the government shutdown and the "beginning effects of tariffs" could put pressure on the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter.

"When we look at the snapshot of ... household spending now, it's not a snapshot that gives you a view into the future," Hunter said. "Next year is going to be driven by very, very different things."

Because of the tumult associated with tariffs, many of Hunter's clients were looking to build out their supply chains in countries where they hadn't previously operated, Hunter said. Economic indicators, such as operational risk indexes and financial risk indexes, also helped companies gauge which countries they should delve into more deeply, she said.

The Supreme Court ruling, and uncertainties over Russia and Ukraine, as well as China and Taiwan, "are going to conspire to keep what we call the uncertainty index elevated. I think what we're seeing, though, is an agility of firms," Hunter said. "As this becomes the new normal, people become a bit desensitized to it, meaning that they will act in spite of it. We're starting to see that, I think, a little bit in terms of jobs growth."

Companies may also be more willing to pass on the costs of tariffs to consumers, after having eaten tariffs in 2025 over concerns that they would lose market share, Hunter continued.

Separately, ocean logistics firm Freightos also recently expressed similar themes on the effects of shifting U.S. trade policies on the economy.

"Obviously the biggest factor in terms of freight markets was the trade war. It added a lot of uncertainty for importers. It meant questions and uncertainty around how much to order, when to order, which sourcing partners to order from," said Judah Levine, head of research for Freightos, during a Dec. 11 webinar. "That meant a lot of front-loading, a lot of starts and stops, depending on when there are various tariff deadlines. In terms of freight rates, that means increases and decreases in prices."

The container market now appears to be in a state of overcapacity, after having experienced whiplash throughout much of the year with the changes in tariff rates, according to Levine.

"We didn't have the typical seasonality that we would have in a normal year," Levine said.

As 2026 approaches, volumes might rebound somewhat seasonally ahead of the Lunar New Year, Levine continued.

There is also "more kind of tariff stability now than there has been at any point since February, in terms of knowing what to expect for at least the near term, [for] at least the next 12 months," Levine said. "If this tariff environment does hold up, it means higher costs for importers, for sure. Will that mean higher costs for consumers? Possibly, but it also means that there is some stability in terms of knowing what your costs are going to be. And it doesn't mean that there's a motivation for front-loading, for the starts and stops that we saw last year."

If market stability appears possible, then it might prompt a return to seasonality in the trans-Pacific ocean market, he continued.

On the U.S. economy in 2026, Freightos' webinar guest, Neale Mahoney, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Research, said: "There's quite a bit of caution, right? Things have been less bad than folks feared. So certainly, there has been some improvement in people's views of where the economy is heading, coming out of the spring into the summer.

"But there's still a lot of caution. We can talk about, you know, headwinds in the labor market, where we are seeing a gradual slowdown of consumer spending ... and there are concerns about AI bubbles. So if I was placing my bets, I would hedge a little bit because I think we are in a period of uncertainty .... We're in an uncertain period with a paucity of data, in part because of the shutdown," he said.

The Port of Los Angeles processed about 782,000 twenty-foot equivalent container units in November, which is 12% lower than the level last year, although last year's figures were elevated because companies were anticipating tariffs, Seroka said. "Once you adjust for that early front-loading and compare this November to our running five-year average, we're basically right on track, and that gives us a pretty good sense of where things stand today," he said.

Imports fell 11% year over year to about 406,000 TEUs, while exports were down 8% to about 114,000 TEUs amid retaliatory tariffs, Seroka said.

Since January, the port has moved almost 9.5 million TEUs, up 1% year-over-year; the port expects to "finish 2025 north of 10 million TEUs, putting this year firmly in our top three of all time," Seroka said.

"I think, in a word, 2025 was a roller-coaster," Seroka said. As the changes to U.S. trade policy came out, "many importers simply slammed on the brakes, not knowing if new policy would be announced in two hours, two days or two months. And then when those policies were softened and trade negotiation deadlines extended, importers saw windows of opportunity, and they really brought a lot of cargo through the supply chain."

Seroka also provided details on the Nov. 21 cargo vessel fire, which broke out aboard the Ocean Network Express Henry Hudson while it was working export cargo. The fire was fully contained three-and-a-half days later, and when the vessel returned to port, teams worked to remove the affected cargo.