About 83 percent of respondents to a United States Fashion Industry Association survey say they'll reduce the amount of apparel they source from China in the next two years -- a strong increase from the 67 percent who said they planned to do that last year. But given that only 6.7 percent said their reductions in Chinese sourcing would be significant, it appears that Section 301 -- and the uncertainty of whether more apparel will be affected -- has had somewhat muted effects on the industry.
Though President Donald Trump delayed imposition of List 4 Section 301 tariffs to restart negotiations with China toward a comprehensive trade deal, retailers continue stocking up on inventory as a hedge against the duties taking effect on short notice, the National Retail Federation said July 10. Imports at major U.S. retail container ports will remain at high levels this summer, “but are expected to grow only modestly compared with last year’s rush to bring merchandise into the country ahead of scheduled tariff increases,” the NRF said. “Retailers still want to protect their customers against potential price increases that would come with any additional tariffs, but with the latest proposed tariffs on hold for now and warehouses bulging, there’s only so much they can do,” it said. “We will still see some near-record numbers this summer, but right now no one knows whether there will be additional tariffs or not.” U.S. ports handled 1.85 million 20-foot-long cargo containers or their equivalents in May, up 6 percent from April and a 1.4 percent increase from May 2018, the NRF said. It’s estimated that ports handled 1.87 million containers in June, an increase of only 0.8 percent year-over-year. The July forecast is for 1.93 million containers to be handled, which would be 1.3 percent higher than the July 2018 volume, it said: “The small year-over-year increases expected in the next few months compare with double-digit growth in multiple months last year as retailers rushed to import Chinese merchandise ahead of expected tariff increases.”
E2open finalized its acquisition of Amber Road, the company said in a July 2 news release. The companies announced the deal in May (see 1905130057). "The combination of E2open and Amber Road brings together two complementary platforms to create a premier global trade management network solution, enhancing customers’ ability to operate their entire end-to-end supply chains from one place in the cloud," E2open said.
Even if a deal is struck with China, things won't return to how they were before, a trade consultant and the National Foreign Trade Council CEO agreed while on a panel. Rufus Yerxa, CEO of the National Foreign Trade Council, told the American Association of Exporters and Importers Annual Conference June 28: "I fear we get to a situation where we can’t go back, and we can’t go forward, either."
Even as one panelist said the changes to NAFTA won't really affect her Fortune 500 company, other panelists at the American Association of Exporters and Importers Annual Conference June 27 in Washington agreed that the deal's rewrite is important for the precedent it sets in future trade negotiations.
The U.S.-China trade war “is taking its toll, especially on China,” eMarketer reported June 25, cutting its 2019 outlook for China and the U.S. As a result, China won't surpass the U.S. in total retail sales this year, as expected, and won't, based on current conditions, until 2021, when it's forecast to pass the U.S. by $93 billion. EMarketer forecasts China retail sales will hit $5.3 trillion this year, up from $5.1 trillion in 2018 vs. U.S. retail sales of $5.5 trillion this year, up from $5.3 trillion. Slowing auto sales are the main drag on the Chinese economy, it said. The U.S. “is not immune to the effects of retaliatory Chinese tariffs,” the research firm said, cutting its previous outlook for U.S. retail sales growth from 3.2 percent to 3 percent, amounting to $5.47 trillion. By share, the U.S. has 21.9 percent of the global retail market vs. China at 21.1 percent, but China’s e-commerce market -- “by far the largest” globally at $1.93 trillion -- is three times that of the U.S.; that forecast is “largely unchanged.” Despite the slight slowdown this year, it said, U.S. e-commerce sales are expected to exceed 10 percent of total retail sales for the first time, with e-commerce growing 14 percent to $586.9 billion.
Hundreds of small companies and individuals, along with the Automotive Parts Remanufacturers trade association, have sent a letter to President Donald Trump saying they support the imposition of 25 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, and urging him to stand strong in his fight. The letter, organized by Coalition for a Prosperous America, was sent June 21. "Many in the media and those self-interested in China have argued that Americans are bearing the cost of these tariffs. That is simply, false. China is bearing the burden of these tariffs. China has had to lower its prices, and they are experiencing fewer exports, lower profits, and lower tax revenue as a result of the tariffs," they wrote, and said there has been "zero impact" on U.S. inflation from the tariffs.
The title of the panel discussion was "21st Century Management at our Ports of Entry," but panelists acknowledged that there are many ways the border operates that aren't modern at all.
The proposed List 4 Section 301 tariffs cover “all of Apple’s major products,” and would harm the company’s “global competitiveness,” the iPhone maker said in heavily redacted comments posted June 20 in docket USTR-2019-0004. “The Chinese producers we compete with in global markets do not have a significant presence in the U.S. market, and so would not be impacted by U.S. tariffs,” Apple said. “A U.S. tariff would, therefore, tilt the playing field in favor of our global competitors.” Tariffs also would reduce Apple’s “U.S. economic contribution,” it said. It vowed last year “to make a total direct contribution to the U.S. economy of over $350 billion over 5 years and we are pleased to report that we are on track to achieve this contribution,” the company said in the filing.
Despite three rounds of Section 301 tariffs and the threat of a fourth, “very few customers are moving existing production out of China,” CEO Mark Mondello of supply-chain services provider Jabil said on a fiscal year Q3 earnings call June 18. The “deep-rooted, mature supply chain that's foundational to China” has most customers staying put, he said. Many also “don't see a reasonable payback” from shifting sourcing elsewhere, plus “a decent percentage” of their Chinese production is “for final consumption in geographies other than the United States,” he said. Some customers have decided “to ramp some of their new products” in countries of origin other than China, he said. “I think that's really healthy. It's really good for us because it continues to help us balance factories and factory loading.” Mondello wants “things to get settled, and settled as soon as possible, between the U.S. and China,” he said. “If things got really, really bad, either short-term or long-term, I think it's going to be tough on everybody, us included, but let's hope that that doesn't occur.”