Many things about the U.S.-China trade war have not turned out as experts expected, panelists said at the Washington International Trade Association Oct. 2. Chad Bown, a trade economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former White House economist, said that 18 months ago, people would have not expected there to be 15 percent to 30 percent tariffs on more than half of Chinese imports, with nearly all the rest slated for tariffs by December, and yet, the economy is doing OK. "Markets haven't panicked," he said. But Bown said he's not that surprised that the country hasn't seen a massive effect from the trade war, since the tariffs in place the longest were on inputs, and because, compared to the size of the entire economy, "we don't actually trade all that much."

Football fans will “need to be aware” this fall that Section 301 tariffs ranging from 15 percent to 30 percent on Chinese goods “will drive up the price of everything from footballs and TVs to portable grills and fanwear,” the National Retail Federation blogged on Sept. 30. “Fans who prefer to watch the game from the comfort of their couch won’t be spared,” NRF said. Overall, “Americans would pay $711 million more than they otherwise would for ... [televisions] hit with 25 percent tariffs,” it said, citing a Trade Partnership report it commissioned in June. Tariffs of 15 percent took effect Sept. 1 on finished TVs from China, among other goods on List 4A. “Think of these tariffs as 15- to 30-yard penalties between you and the goal of a fun weekend afternoon with your favorite team,” NRF said. “As you take a break during halftime, take a moment to tell Congress to end the trade war and remove all tariffs.”

Amazon recently purchased INLT, a startup company that makes customs brokerage software, according to a notice on the INLT website. "We have been acquired by Amazon and look forward to working with them to develop the next generation of solutions for our current customers and Amazon Selling Partners," INLT said. Terms of the deal, which was first reported by Reuters, weren't released. INLT was co-founded by Chris Reynolds, who also runs customs consultancy Cardinal Trade Associates and was at OHL before that (see 1511040009).

A survey of 700 middle market executives, conducted before List 4 tariffs were announced, found 40 percent say tariffs on imports are challenging their businesses, and 26 percent say retaliatory tariffs are a problem for their firms. Middle market firms tend to have revenue of $10 million to $500 million and 100 to 2,000 employees. The survey, co-sponsored by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, showed that gross revenues and profits both are growing, but capital investments are sluggish, and there's a decline in hiring expectations. More than half the respondents said they don't expect the economy to improve in the next six months.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce led a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer expressing fear that the mini deal nearing completion with Japan will stall momentum for a broader trade negotiation. "We respectfully urge the Administration to hold fast to its commitment to achieve a comprehensive, high-standard trade agreement with Japan and ensure this initial package does not impede momentum toward such a broader accord." The Chamber and 13 trade groups said a comprehensive trade deal should address services, including express delivery, customs administration and trade facilitation, regulatory cooperation, intellectual property and more.

Products like TVs and headphones that consumers deem “nice to have,” but not essential, likely will bear the biggest sales fallout from tariff-induced price increases, The NPD Group said in a Sept. 9 research report. Consumer buying decisions “will be impacted less by household income or cost and more by whether a product is considered a 'necessity,'” it said.

Samsung’s Galaxy Tab S6, released for sale on Sept. 6 and marked on the packaging as a product of Vietnam, typifies the growing volume of Vietnamese-sourced tablets and laptops imported to the U.S. under Harmonized Tariff Schedule subheading 8471.30.01. Though the overwhelming majority of those goods continue to originate from China, Vietnam is emerging as a more important country of origin, according to Census Bureau trade data accessed through the International Trade Commission’s DataWeb tool.

The fourth list of Section 301 tariffs that was split into two subgroups, 4A and 4B, includes many very similar items that will require some specificity for differentiating between them, the Atlanta International Forwarders and Brokers Association said in a blog post. Fifteen percent tariffs on the 4A group of products took effect on Sept. 1, while the 15 percent tariffs on the 4B items start on Dec. 15. The differing effective dates are hoped to reduce the holiday season impacts (see 1908130033).

One-third of Fortune 500 top executives discussed the impact of tariffs on their firms during earning calls this summer, according to analysis conducted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Manufacturing and industrial firms were most likely to talk tariffs, with 64 percent mentioning them; about 58 percent of retailers talked about tariffs' effects, and 43 percent of tech firms talked tariffs.

Walmart Chief Merchandising Officer Steve Bratspies was “really proud” how his team mitigated the cost impact of the Lists 1, 2 and 3 Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods, he told a Barclays investor conference Sept. 4. List 4, which covers virtually all China-sourced goods not previously tariffed, “makes it tougher” to manage, Bratspies said. “There's no doubt about that.” With the previous three tariff rounds, “there were a few prices” that Walmart did have to raise, “but we didn't see any change in our unit projection of where we thought it would be, so that was absorbed,” he said. “We were very focused and targeted on how we did it. We didn't let any of our price gaps slip, and we maintained price leadership.” Though List 4 “gets tougher,” Walmart plans “the same approach that we took to List 3, which is we literally go through item by item,” Bratspies said. “That's what our buyers do.” There's “a whole bunch of different levers that a buyer can pull to understand how to manage that,” he said. The goal is to “offset as much as we possibly can either through negotiation or managing mix,” he said. Even if Walmart needs to raise prices as a “last resort” to maintain margins where they need to be, “we're going to run the Walmart model, which is we want to lead on price,” he said. Walmart last month slightly scaled back full-year expectations on consolidated net sales growth, factoring in the impact of the List 4 tariffs when they were still at 10 percent (see 1908150049).