George Mason University will open a new Anti-Illicit Trade Institute within the existing Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center, the university said in a news release. David Luna, CEO of Luna Global Networks and a former U.S. diplomat, will help lead the program, GMU said. The new institute will also be led by Louise Shelley, a GMU professor, it said. "Beginning in 2020, the AITI will include a core of anti-illicit trade executive-tailored courses and online instruction related to developing effective strategies for fighting illicit markets; investigating and prosecuting illicit trade (the importance of intelligence -- and information-sharing across borders); targeting webs of corruption and criminality by following the money and 'value' (money-laundering/trade-based money-laundering); tackling cybercrime and dismantling online markets related to Intellectual Property (IP) crime including counterfeit and pirated goods; and other important anti-crime and criminal justice areas," it said.
At a press conference attended by dozens of pro-USMCA trade groups, U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Thomas Donohue said his group is optimistic that the trade pact will get a vote in September. Donohue held his fingers an inch apart and said, "Lighthizer and Nancy Pelosi are this close," he said, referring to negotiations on changes to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement between U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and the Speaker of the House. Donohue said the Chamber is "very, very willing to move forward" with small fixes, which he characterized as "ornaments on the tree."
Hundreds of business groups, led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, urged Congress to pass the new NAFTA, known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, "as soon as possible," in a letter sent July 23. The letter was signed by trade groups from many sectors, goods and services, importers and exporters and sectors that rely on both, as well as local chambers of commerce from every state. "U.S. manufacturers export more made-in-America manufactured goods to our North American neighbors than they do to the next 11 largest export markets combined, and the two countries account for nearly one-third of U.S. agricultural exports," the groups wrote. "They are also the top two export destinations for U.S. small and medium-size businesses, more than 120,000 of which sell their goods and services to Canada and Mexico."
About 83 percent of respondents to a United States Fashion Industry Association survey say they'll reduce the amount of apparel they source from China in the next two years -- a strong increase from the 67 percent who said they planned to do that last year. But given that only 6.7 percent said their reductions in Chinese sourcing would be significant, it appears that Section 301 -- and the uncertainty of whether more apparel will be affected -- has had somewhat muted effects on the industry.
Though President Donald Trump delayed imposition of List 4 Section 301 tariffs to restart negotiations with China toward a comprehensive trade deal, retailers continue stocking up on inventory as a hedge against the duties taking effect on short notice, the National Retail Federation said July 10. Imports at major U.S. retail container ports will remain at high levels this summer, “but are expected to grow only modestly compared with last year’s rush to bring merchandise into the country ahead of scheduled tariff increases,” the NRF said. “Retailers still want to protect their customers against potential price increases that would come with any additional tariffs, but with the latest proposed tariffs on hold for now and warehouses bulging, there’s only so much they can do,” it said. “We will still see some near-record numbers this summer, but right now no one knows whether there will be additional tariffs or not.” U.S. ports handled 1.85 million 20-foot-long cargo containers or their equivalents in May, up 6 percent from April and a 1.4 percent increase from May 2018, the NRF said. It’s estimated that ports handled 1.87 million containers in June, an increase of only 0.8 percent year-over-year. The July forecast is for 1.93 million containers to be handled, which would be 1.3 percent higher than the July 2018 volume, it said: “The small year-over-year increases expected in the next few months compare with double-digit growth in multiple months last year as retailers rushed to import Chinese merchandise ahead of expected tariff increases.”
E2open finalized its acquisition of Amber Road, the company said in a July 2 news release. The companies announced the deal in May (see 1905130057). "The combination of E2open and Amber Road brings together two complementary platforms to create a premier global trade management network solution, enhancing customers’ ability to operate their entire end-to-end supply chains from one place in the cloud," E2open said.
Even if a deal is struck with China, things won't return to how they were before, a trade consultant and the National Foreign Trade Council CEO agreed while on a panel. Rufus Yerxa, CEO of the National Foreign Trade Council, told the American Association of Exporters and Importers Annual Conference June 28: "I fear we get to a situation where we can’t go back, and we can’t go forward, either."
Even as one panelist said the changes to NAFTA won't really affect her Fortune 500 company, other panelists at the American Association of Exporters and Importers Annual Conference June 27 in Washington agreed that the deal's rewrite is important for the precedent it sets in future trade negotiations.
The U.S.-China trade war “is taking its toll, especially on China,” eMarketer reported June 25, cutting its 2019 outlook for China and the U.S. As a result, China won't surpass the U.S. in total retail sales this year, as expected, and won't, based on current conditions, until 2021, when it's forecast to pass the U.S. by $93 billion. EMarketer forecasts China retail sales will hit $5.3 trillion this year, up from $5.1 trillion in 2018 vs. U.S. retail sales of $5.5 trillion this year, up from $5.3 trillion. Slowing auto sales are the main drag on the Chinese economy, it said. The U.S. “is not immune to the effects of retaliatory Chinese tariffs,” the research firm said, cutting its previous outlook for U.S. retail sales growth from 3.2 percent to 3 percent, amounting to $5.47 trillion. By share, the U.S. has 21.9 percent of the global retail market vs. China at 21.1 percent, but China’s e-commerce market -- “by far the largest” globally at $1.93 trillion -- is three times that of the U.S.; that forecast is “largely unchanged.” Despite the slight slowdown this year, it said, U.S. e-commerce sales are expected to exceed 10 percent of total retail sales for the first time, with e-commerce growing 14 percent to $586.9 billion.
Hundreds of small companies and individuals, along with the Automotive Parts Remanufacturers trade association, have sent a letter to President Donald Trump saying they support the imposition of 25 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, and urging him to stand strong in his fight. The letter, organized by Coalition for a Prosperous America, was sent June 21. "Many in the media and those self-interested in China have argued that Americans are bearing the cost of these tariffs. That is simply, false. China is bearing the burden of these tariffs. China has had to lower its prices, and they are experiencing fewer exports, lower profits, and lower tax revenue as a result of the tariffs," they wrote, and said there has been "zero impact" on U.S. inflation from the tariffs.