Nextel made its most complete filing yet on its concerns about the 800 MHz rebanding proposal published by the FCC on Aug. 6. Most issues raised were highly technical, but Nextel continues to put the most emphasis on financial issues.

Nextel’s broadband future relies on it getting 1.9 GHz spectrum but that’s far from assured, the Precursor Group said Wed. in a research note. Precursor warned that based on its reading of tea leaves the 800 MHz order isn’t likely to survive an almost inevitable legal appeal. However, Legg Mason is taking a less negative view. “[Nextel’s] successful narrowband past is unlikely to be repeated in the evolving wireless broadband future,” wrote Rudy Baca, wireless and media analyst. “While NXTL is likely to continue growing its narrowband business in the short-term, we believe the FCC’s 800 MHz decision is unlikely to survive administrative or judicial review -- putting NXTL back to square one in transitioning to a broadband future.” Precursor noted that “tellingly” -- while Nextel scored a “big regulatory win” -- it still hasn’t signed off on the agreement. “In the end, Precursor believes NXTL is highly likely to sign onto the FCC’s decision because it has no other viable alternative,” Precursor said: “Without the deal, NXTL lacks spectrum to compete in a broadband future.” From Nextel’s viewpoint there are negatives tied to the 800 MHz rebanding plan the FCC approved in July and released Aug. 6, Baca said: “Precursor believes the chief negatives for NXTL are the cost of the deal, which is much more than NXTL wanted or expected, and the very high risk that the decision is overturned on appeal -- at least the 1.9 GHz replacement spectrum part.” Legg Mason analyst Rebecca Arbogast told us she was on the whole impressed with how the FCC acquitted itself in its rationale for the rebanding. “I believe that the spectrum swap raises many legal issues of first impression, which means it could still go either way when it gets to court,” she said Wed. “I've always been sensitive to the risk that the structure of the swap might not pass muster with the courts, but having read the FCC’s justification, in my view it is well done, and I've revised upward my assessment that the courts will ultimately uphold the order. It could, however, still take a while before we get a final decision.”

The FCC should deny an IEEE 802.18 Radio Regulatory Technical Advisory Group request to extend the comment deadline for a proceeding on the use of the white spaces between TV channels, opponents said. Intel told the Commission a proposed 6-month delay was unnecessary and would hurt the progress of technology. The “white spaces” in the TV spectrum could be used for new services, including broadband wireless.

MONTREAL -- FCC Chief of Staff Bryan Tramont said at the APCO conference here that, with the 800 MHz order out, the Commission will make the digital TV transition “the primary policy imperative of the agency” the next 6 months. Tramont, speaking on a panel of top FCC staffers, said Chmn. Powell is eager to establish a date certain for the transition, which will provide 700 MHz spectrum for public safety.

MONTREAL -- Nextel officials were still reviewing the Commission’s 800 MHz rebanding report on Mon. The order, released late Fri. (CD Aug 8 Special Report), spells out in detail how the rebanding will work, potential penalties Nextel faces for noncompliance, and milestones for completion. A few critical issues remain, especially working out agreements with Canada and Mexico on cross-border issues, officials said, and the rebanding requires Nextel’s agreement.

Bundling strategies that pit cable companies against DBS companies and their partner RBOCs in the race to provide video, voice and data are evidence of “the intensity of the competitive rivalry” in the video provider marketplace, NCTA said in comments to the FCC. Cable implored the FCC to acknowledge that a “vigorous rivalry” exists between cable and DBS, as satellite has continued to erode cable marketshare, from 91% in 1995 to 73% today. NCTA said DBS companies are forming alliances with RBOCs to offer Internet and telephone service, and DBS has grown to more than 23% of the market. Comments were due Fri. in the FCC’s annual assessment of the status of competition in the delivery of video programming.

The deadline for submitting bids in NextWave’s private auction, scheduled for Thurs., came and went Tues. without a decision from the FCC that Nextel would get the 1.9 GHz spectrum it has been seeking. That was a potentially negative development for Nextel, which had pushed for a decision prior to the deadline. The FCC last week put a Nextel order on its agenda for Thurs.’s Commission meeting.

If the FCC hands down an order giving Nextel 10 MHz of spectrum at 1.9 GHz, as expected as part of the rebanding plan (CD June 25 p5), it could drive up prices in NextWave’s election scheduled to start July 8, with bids due July 6, Legg Mason suggested in a report Fri. “Although not directly linked, the Nextel and NextWave spectrum proceedings could affect one another,” Legg Mason said. “We believe that if the Commission stays with the 1.9 GHz option… this could increase the bidding for the NextWave spectrum because carriers will not have another shot at 1.9 GHz spectrum.” Analyst firm Kaufman Bros. said Nextel’s pending win at the FCC makes its stock look like an attractive buy, especially given its weakened price. “We believe the situation at the FCC is unusual because of the interference that is being caused to public safety operations,” the firm said in a Fri. research report. “The solution appears to us to meet the needs of all parties and does not represent a give-away of spectrum, in our view.” Medley Global Advisers said Nextel appears to be winning, but several details still must be worked out: “Some of these issues include the specific price Nextel will pay for 1.9 plus rebanding costs, time lines for relocating private and public licensees in 800, and other aspects of the consensus plan that could involve forcing Nextel to give up some spectrum in the 700 band.” Medley said the FCC must still evaluate the litigation risk presented from siding with Nextel.

CTIA and other wireless carriers launched a massive, last minute offensive Thurs. aimed at turning around the FCC’s expected decision to give Nextel 10 MHz of spectrum at 1.9 GHz. CTIA said in a filing that NextWave auction reserve prices confirm that giving Nextel 1.9 GHz as part of a rebanding scheme would constitute a “massive giveaway.” Meanwhile, an alternate public safety group held a press conference to denounce the plan.

The FCC is expected to release a public notice as early as today (Fri.) establishing an auction starting in 6 months of 2,400 MHz of spectrum divided among multiple locations, including spectrum returned by NextWave. Major wireless carriers made a last-min. push to open all licenses to all carriers and do away with designated entities (DE) restrictions. But those efforts largely fell flat in recent days, sources said.