The end-of-the-year appropriations compromise worked out between the House and Senate will add tens of millions of dollars for trade enforcement and port technology. The bill, which is expected to pass the Senate by Dec. 20 and has already passed the House of Representatives, will also spend $54 million for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
The House Ways and Means Committee, with near-unanimity, recommended the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement go to the floor. A vote on the replacement for NAFTA is expected on Dec. 19. For about three hours, Democrats and Republicans praised the rewrite of North America's free trade pact, though many Republicans complained that it took a year to get the opportunity to vote for it.
With the announcement of a phase one deal, Flexport chief economist Phil Levy said the promise is for stability in tariff levels -- even if the large majority of goods facing Section 301 tariffs will retain the 25 percent hike. But, he noted in a Dec. 16 webinar, many times over the last eight months, “a deal was announced, and it didn't last. That should sort of serve as a precautionary tale.” Levy, like many observers, doesn't believe that a phase two deal, that could lead to rolling back more tariffs, is likely in the next year.
With the last round of consumer goods imported from China spared, and a reduction in Section 301 tariffs on about $120 billion in goods that were first subject to additional tariffs Sept. 1, some business interests welcomed the de-escalation, but warned that the U.S. should stay focused on more significant economic reforms in China. The tariffs on List 4a, which are at 15 percent and apply to about 3,800 8-digit tariff lines, will go to 7.5 percent.
Although the Senate Finance Committee will still have a mock markup on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, it will happen after the implementing bill has been sent to Congress, so it will be more “mock” than in past deals. The reason the process of Congress weighing in on a trade deal is a mock markup is that under fast track, or Trade Promotion Authority, Congress cannot amend the deals. But typically, the administration sends up a draft implementing bill, and then does incorporate at least some of Congress's suggestions on language before sending the final implementing bill.
House Democrats and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative say that the new NAFTA can serve as a template for future trade deals, but experts question how that might come to pass, and a key Republican wants at least one Republican priority restored in future deals.
A last-minute push to tighten up the steel and aluminum segment of the auto rules of origin has angered Mexico, media reports said Dec. 6. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, had referred to this last-minute ask as not coming from House Democrats the day before (see 1912050054). The reports say that steel unions asked for a “poured and melted” standard, rather than allowing Mexican processors to take imported slab and make it into sheet metal for cars.
Texas voters send 36 members to the House of Representatives, and 18 attended a press conference Dec. 5 to say they want a U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement vote as soon as possible. But only one of the 13 Democrats in the Texas delegation attended -- Rep. Henry Cuellar, who represents Laredo and McAllen. Cuellar, the biggest booster of the new NAFTA in the Democratic caucus, said he'd been updated about the state of play between Mexicans and the U.S. trade representative at 9:30 a.m. that day, and “we're very, very, very close,” he said, but he said Mexicans tire of what they feel is a “one-more-thing”-style of negotiating from the Americans.
Japan’s Diet approved the country’s trade deal with the U.S., Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a Dec. 3 notice, according to an unofficial translation. The deal passed in Japan’s upper house after being approved by Japan’s lower house on Nov. 19 (see 1911190045), and sets up a Jan. 1, 2020, effective date. The deal, signed by the two countries in October, will eliminate nearly 250 tariff lines of Japanese imports into the U.S. and will lower Japanese tariffs on hundreds of U.S. exports, including food and agricultural goods (see 1910070074)
Democrats in the House insisted that their ideas about how to verify compliance with Mexico's labor laws is a balanced one that respects their sovereignty. Chief Mexican negotiator on USMCA, Jesus Seade, wrote a column published Dec. 4 that said, in Spanish, that there will be no “transnational inspectors,” even though the U.S. has pushed so much for that approach. "If the U.S. stops insisting on the pair of unacceptable ideas that the [Mexican trade group CCE] statement yesterday speaks of, we can soon have a treaty, and a very good treaty," he wrote (see 1912030033). He said that the state-to-state dispute settlement system, broken in NAFTA, "will now be 100% repaired, for all topics and sectors under the treaty."