The planned U.S. and Chinese tariff increases are expected to go forward as scheduled and escalation will continue "until both sides feel enough economic, market and/or political pain to strike a deal," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch global economists Ethan Harris and Aditya Bhave in a Sept. 3 research report. "The recent escalation has opened an almost insurmountable gap in terms of numbers and trust," the economists said. "The only real question is whether the Trump Administration takes the politically dangerous step of imposing tariffs on headline consumer products in December. We think they give it a go: given the supply chain lags it will mainly impact consumer prices after the holidays. All told we expect US tariffs against China to increase from about $63bn in August to more than $115bn by yearend, with Chinese tariffs on US products rising from $20bn to $25bn."

Almost half of companies that responded to the U.S.-China Business Council's annual survey on the business climate in China said they have lost sales in China since the trade war began. The most common reason is because of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to China, according to these 100 multinational firms based in the U.S. Another third said they lost sales because of U.S. tariffs.

Best Buy trimmed full-year revenue guidance on projected impact of the List 4 Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods that take effect Sunday and again Dec. 15. A more-than-expected “drag” in the videogaming cycle, plus the maturing smartphone category also weighed heavily on Best Buy's outlook, said executives on a Q2 call Thursday. Shares closed 8 percent lower Thursday at $63.47.

Almost half of companies that responded to the U.S.-China Business Council's annual survey on the business climate in China said they have lost sales in China since the trade war began. The most common reason is because of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports to China, according to these 100 multinational firms based in the U.S. Another third said they lost sales because of U.S. tariffs.

Derek Scissors, a China scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, has been arguing for decoupling from China for years. He says whether President Donald Trump wins a second term, or a Democrat replaces him, it's likely tech companies will have to change their supply chains and reverse the international approach to research and development. Scissors said in an interview that while apparel and other low-value goods manufacturers were already moving to cheaper countries in Asia, consumer technology firms were happy in China before the trade war began. "You could easily get a Democratic administration that wants to get tech out of China," he said. "Biden's people say they want that."

A bill barring use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act as grounds for imposing import tariffs or quotas on another country cleared the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee without fanfare before the August congressional recess. Sens. Tom Carper, D-Del., and Pat Toomey, R-Pa., introduced S-2413 with six co-sponsors. To stem the influx of migrants at the southern border, President Donald Trump threatened in May to use his authority under the 1977 statute to impose 5 percent tariffs on Mexican imports starting June 10, and hike them by 5 points monthly to 25 percent on Oct. 1 if the border crisis persisted (see 1905310014). Trump lifted the threat days later, not before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce threatened litigation challenging his IEEPA authority to levy the import duties against Mexico (see 1906080001). No U.S. president in history has invoked IEEPA to impose tariffs on the imports of another country.

Even at only 10 percent, the List 4 Section 301 tariffs due to take effect Sept. 1 on up to $300 billion worth of Chinese imports (see 1908010059) “would have a much larger impact on the U.S. tech sector” than the previous three rounds of 25 percent duties, said an S&P Global Ratings report Monday. The List 4 tariffs would “significantly raise costs for manufacturers and prices for consumers,” much more than current tariffs, it said.

Even at only 10 percent, the List 4 Section 301 tariffs due to take effect Sept. 1 on up to $300 billion worth of Chinese imports (see 1908010059) “would have a much larger impact on the U.S. tech sector” than the previous three rounds of 25 percent duties, said an S&P Global Ratings report Monday. The List 4 tariffs would “significantly raise costs for manufacturers and prices for consumers,” much more than current tariffs, it said.

Even at only 10 percent, the List 4 Section 301 tariffs due to take effect Sept. 1 on up to $300 billion worth of Chinese imports (see 1908010059) “would have a much larger impact on the U.S. tech sector” than the previous three rounds of 25 percent duties, said an S&P Global Ratings report Monday. The List 4 tariffs would “significantly raise costs for manufacturers and prices for consumers,” much more than current tariffs, it said.

Even at only 10 percent, the List 4 Section 301 tariffs due to take effect Sept. 1 on up to $300 billion worth of Chinese imports “would have a much larger impact on the U.S. tech sector” than the previous three rounds of 25 percent duties, an Aug. 5 S&P Global Ratings report said. The List 4 tariffs would “significantly raise costs for manufacturers and prices for consumers,” much more so than the current tariffs, it said.